The research, commissioned by UK Finance, offers insight for lenders and governments as they look to encourage home energy efficiency and green heating. 

At the COP30 climate conference this month, the World Green Building Council called on governments to “be bold on buildings” — pointing to the fact that buildings account for around one-third of global emissions. 

Within the UK, the Climate Change Committee (CCC) has said that half of homes need to be using heat pumps by 2040, if the country is to meet its climate targets — requiring annual installations of 450,000 by 2030 and 1.5mn by 2035. 

But survey data tends to suggest that few people want to make these home improvements. When UK Finance polled a sample of the UK population last year, we found that only 13% of people would choose a heat pump if they needed to replace their main source of heating in the next 12 months. Our assessment in our June 2025 report, “Greening Homes, Creating Growth”, was that lending will only flow at scale once demand for green solutions improves. 

That’s why the latest research published by Early Studies, with UK Finance support, is so interesting. 

Assessment of future behaviour 

Early Studies’ use of the “Triple Tense Technique” and “Social Circle Surveying” (described further in their report) offers new insights. Early Studies asks what respondents’ friends or family think about specific issues and invites them to consider responses not only for the present — but also for five years ago and three years into the future. 

The findings are striking. In one question, Early Studies asked respondents to consider what friends or family are most likely to borrow for from a preset list of options. While only 13% choose “a heat pump to replace their gas boiler” for 2025, this figure rose to 40% for 2028. Self-assessed appetite to borrow for solar panels likewise rises from 17% for 2025 to 36% for 2028.