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1. UK economy faces recession in 2020 if it leaves the EU without a deal
2. London house prices fall at the fastest rate in a decade
The average house price in the UK, according to the latest data from the ONS (The Times, £, p9).
The UK will go into recession next year and the economy will be three per cent smaller if there is a ?no-deal? Brexit, according to the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), reports The Times (£, p1). The economic forecaster is due to give its first assessment of the economic impact of leaving without a deal later today, including how it may affect household finances, employment and house prices.
Meanwhile, the UK will have to ?face the consequences? if it decides to leave the EU without a deal, according to the latter's chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier, reports BBC News (online only). Speaking to Panorama ahead of an episode on ?Britain's Brexit Crisis? being broadcast this evening, he said that the agreement negotiated by prime minister Theresa May was the ?only way to leave the EU in an orderly manner?. Mr Barnier added on Radio 4's Today (8:10) programme this morning that a ?no-deal? Brexit ?will not be the choice of the EU? however the bloc is prepared for this scenario.
House prices in London fell at their fastest rate for almost a decade in May, according to the latest data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS), reports Sky News (online only). The ONS recorded a 4.4 per cent decline in residential property costs in the capital, marking the biggest fall since August 2009, when the market was impacted by the financial crisis. Overall, the average house price increased by 1.2 per cent across the UK. The Daily Mail (p4) adds that the slowdown in the capital was attributed to Brexit uncertainty and increases to stamp duty.
Meanwhile, inflation in Britain rose by two per cent in the last 12 months to the end of June, according to the most recent ONS Consumer Prices Index, reports City AM (p9). The increase is consistent with the Bank of England's inflation target; it is understood two per cent is ideal for ensuring smooth growth in the economy. Workers? pay also rose by 3.6 per cent, which equates to real pay growing by 1.7 per cent.
Following Andrew Bailey's recent speech to update markets on the next important phase of transition away from LIBOR to other chosen risk-free rates, Daniel Cichocki, Director of Commercial Finance at UK Finance, blogs on what the industry is doing to prepare for this.
Some of the UK's biggest banks have signed up to HM Treasury's ?Investing in Women Code?, a commitment by financial services firms to improving female entrepreneurs? access to resources and finance (Daily Telegraph, £, p31).
The Confederation of British Industry (CBI) has warned shadow chancellor John McDonnell that it has concerns about the Labour Party's plans to make all large companies hand over ten per cent of their shares to employees, in a letter seen by the Financial Times (£, p3).
The Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) is reportedly considering restrictions on retail investors buying high-risk financial products on the internet, following a series of related scandals (Financial Times, £, p2).
Smartphone application ?FaceApp?, which allows users to upload an image of themselves and then edit it using AI to make the face look ?older?, has prompted data and privacy concerns about the mass collection of people's faces (Daily Telegraph, £, p33).
China is no longer using trade to boost its economy and almost reached a trade balance in 2018, according to a report by the International Monetary Fund (The Times, £, p40).
G7 finance ministers have supported plans to increase access to internet and mobile banking for 400 million predominantly rural women in Africa, to ensure they are not excluded from digital financial services (The Guardian, p31).
Ministers have also cast doubt on Facebook's plans for a digital currency, demanding that regulatory issues be addressed before it is launched (The Times, £, p35).
Helen Brand, chief executive of the Association of Chartered Certified Accountants (ACCA), writes in City AM (p13) about the importance of infrastructure to the UK economy. She details how there is not enough investment in resources or project, despite it being a major employer and driver of economic growth, and adds that more should be done to address this. Ms Brand concludes by calling on the next prime minister to spend more on ?quality infrastructure? in Britain.
James Moore, chief business commentator for the Independent (£, p54), warns about the impact weak sterling will have on the British economy. He echoes concerns by chancellor Philip Hammond that a weak pound will increase the cost of imports and boost inflation. Mr Moore concludes that ordinary people's living standards will be most affected.
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