NO-DEAL BREXIT WILL IMPACT RESILIENT PARTS OF THE ECONOMY, WARNS OBR

With less than a month to go until the UK exits the EU's single market, there are still several rights and regulatory waivers that the UK is waiting to be granted, including for financial services and data (Financial Times, £, p3). EU officials have said that the bloc's stance in holding off on granting these rights is being driven by factors ranging from a desire to maximise negotiating leverage in the trade discussions to difficulties in working out how to extend certain regulatory permissions. The EU's chief negotiator Michel Barnier will give an online briefing this morning to EU national governments, from London where the Brexit talks continue (The Telegraph, £, p2).

If the UK sees a no-deal, sectors that have so far proved resilient to the coronavirus pandemic could be hardest hit, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) has warned (i, p7, print only). Richard Hughes, chairman of the OBR, told MPs at a Treasury select committee that failure to agree an EU withdrawal deal would affect firms that are helping the economy through the pandemic, such as financial services, manufacturers and agriculture. Mr Hughes said the pandemic has ?affected the non-tradeable services sector particularly hard but Brexit actually affects the tradeable goods and the tradeable services sectors? (Sky News). The OBR also warned that a no-deal Brexit would knock two percentage points off growth next year while leading to job losses, forecasting unemployment at 8.3 per cent in the third quarter of next year.

HOUSE PRICES REACHED HIGHEST RATE IN ALMOST SIX YEARS

House prices last month jumped 6.5 per cent year-on-year to reach its highest rate in almost six years, according to Nationwide building society's house price index (The Daily Telegraph, B4, £). In November, the average British home cost £229,721, a 0.9 per cent rise compared with October on a seasonally adjusted basis. The stamp duty tax cut and the desire from buyers for more space after lockdown has meant house prices are now £13,897 higher than last year.

However once the stamp duty cut expires in March next year and pent-up demand for houses falls, analysts believe that market activity is at risk of slowing sharply (The Times, p43, £). Nationwide's chief economist Robert Gardner said that the outlook remained ?highly uncertain? and that housing market activity was likely to slow, ?perhaps sharply, if the labour market weakens as most analysts expect, especially once the stamp duty holiday expires?.

NEWS IN BRIEF

The high street department store Debenhams has gone into liquidation, putting over 12,000 jobs at risk (The Guardian, p4).

Companies with large tax debts that collapse are less likely to secure a CVA (company voluntary arrangements) due to changes in the rules regarding crown preference, according to insolvency experts (The Times, £, p38).

British consumer confidence has improved slightly as the prospect of new vaccines for Covid-19 grows, rising to 102.3 in November compared to 101.4 a month ago, according to YouGov's consumer confidence index (Reuters).

According to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation (OECD), economic recovery in the UK next year will be among the slowest in the world, remaining 6.4 per cent smaller, while GDP will shrink by 11.2 per cent this year - the deepest recession of all advanced G7 countries (The Times, £, p42).

The Ministry of Justice (MoJ) announced last night that it will waive Court of Protection fees for parents applying to access a maturing trust fund on behalf of their disabled children (The Telegraph, £, online only).

Treasury and business ministers welcomed the Business Banking Resolution Service (BBRS) final launch preparations last night, ahead of the service going live. The BBRS aims to build trust and confidence between SMEs and their banks (BBRS website).