Put simply, the war in the Middle East means that, currently, these customers will pay more when they look for a new rate. As the conflict in the Middle East rages on, the cost to lenders of wholesale funding is both elevated and volatile, driving up pricing for new mortgages. In a year where 1.8 million fixed rate mortgages are set to come to the end of their deal period, this report examines the prospects for mortgage customers looking to refinance their loans amidst this market disruption.

We find that the vast majority of customers will still have a good degree of wiggle room after they refinance.  However, the scale of the challenge is very different, depending on when customers took out their previous loan, with those who last borrowed in 2021 facing by far the greatest payment shock.