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The extra amount of government borrowing that would be required in a ?no-deal? Brexit, according to the Office for Budget Responsibility (Sky News, online only).
A ?no-deal? Brexit would result in a ten per cent fall in house prices by mid-2021, according to predictions published by the Office for Budget Responsibility yesterday (The Times, £, p2). The analysis by the government's economic forecaster, based on a scenario from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), also suggested a 20 per cent fall in property transactions by the end of 2020 and a five per cent fall in share prices in the last quarter of this year if the UK leaves the EU without a deal (The Guardian, p10). Separate data released by the Bank of England yesterday indicated that demand for mortgages increased significantly in the second quarter of this year (The Times, p42, print only).
Meanwhile, the Residential Landlords Association has warned that a government plan to ban ?no-fault? evictions, known as section 21 notices, would lead to lower-income tenants finding it harder to rent a property (BBC Online). In a survey of 6,400 landlords by the trade body, 84 per cent said they would be more selective about their tenants as a result of the proposed changes. Separately, a government-backed inquiry has recommended that a new, independent regulator should be set up to oversee estate agents, with new mandatory qualifications and a code of practice (The Times, £, p36).
Oivind Andresen, Director, BDO, blogs on credit concentration risk and taking the Herfindahl-Hirschman indicator approach.
The International Organisation of Securities Commissions has defended its rules for investment funds, saying they provide a ?comprehensive framework for regulators to deal with liquidity risks? (City AM, p7).
The government's expert panel on fire safety has said that high-pressure laminate cladding panels should be removed from more tower blocks ?as soon as possible?, The Guardian (p23) reports.
The Financial Times (£, p3) reports that ?political turmoil? over Brexit has dissuaded two leading central bankers from applying for the position of governor of the Bank of England.
Retail sales increased by one per cent in June compared to the previous month, supported by strong employment and increasing wages, according to the Office for National Statistics (Daily Telegraph, £, p33).
The company that targeted WhatsApp using spyware claims its technology can also capture data stored in the cloud by major technology companies, reports the Financial Times (£, online only).
The co-creator of Facebook's new cryptocurrency has spent two days testifying in front of the US Congress amid ?hostility in Washington?, reports the Financial Times (£, p14).
The current chief executive of HM Revenue and Customs, Sir Jonathan Thompson, has been selected to lead the Financial Reporting Council as it is transformed into the new Audit, Reporting and Governance Authority (The Times, £, p33).
The Financial Conduct Authority has been criticised by the Complaints Commissioner for its slow response to complaints, with its performance reported to have 'slipped significantly? (Financial Times, £, p3).
Sathnam Sanghera, journalist at The Times (p, £), discusses how the United Kingdom's ?obsession with property? could prove to be a liability which is contributing to the pensions crisis. Mr Sanghera argues if your house is ?your pension?, people will need to sell it to realise the funds. This, he says, has many pitfalls - house price inflation is not guaranteed and even if a property provides cash, homeowners could be left without a roof over their head in the long term as they will undoubtedly have to sell. Mr Sanghera concludes ploughing everything into a property is a big savings gamble.
Tim Harford in the Financial Times (p, £) comments on how we all have the potential to fall victim to fraudsters, highlighting the work of Maria Konnikova who believes visceral emotions are easy to exploit, with scammers preying on human fear and greed. Mr Harford argues that our self-absorption leads us to bypass rational questioning when we are promised ?exceptional treatment?. He concludes we should all be alert to the fact the next victim could be you or me.
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