Economic Insight

Back to prices this month – somewhat better news on inflation and the Bank of England’s decision to keep interest rates on hold in September. The data continues to signal continuing uncertainties ahead on growth and some bumps in the road on inflation with rising oil prices. We round off with the headline from UK Finance’s latest report on payments markets.

This month’s review has a focus on growth with an international flavour. We look at what was behind some of the better GDP data in the UK and the resilient US numbers. Some UK labour market indicators continue to surprise, but not in a good way for policy makers; we’ll look at what the next MPC meeting might hold for interest rates.

We take a look at some recent activity indicators which provide an early steer on the shape of the UK economy going into the second half of 2023. The month there’s a particular focus on some consumer-related indicators. And we can’t escape the news on inflation – which was in June, but will it last?

The past month has been dominated by developments in the mortgage market, we’ll take a look at how those have developed, what the
response has been and the potential impact on borrowers.

Inflation continues to top the data charts, so we’ll look at price developments in the UK and the eurozone and the expected response from the Bank of England. This month also looks at housing market developments at home and a whistlestop tour of economic developments abroad.

New arrears, new challenges